Is This a Depression?

Great Story Bob, but you need to quit using that swear word!  On another note, I was in Las Vegas for the 26-27th and things looked a little slower, but still pretty packed.  The mall was nuts, but you can expect that the day after Christmas.  I think that this slowdown is more regional than national though.  I go some places it is dead, others, not so much.  Probably depends more on the local economy.  I do agree though that there is still a lot of correction coming (some areas more than others of course).

Interesting.  Here in the Palo Alto area I don't notice it much--restaurants are still full and shopping malls busy.  For the latter I suppose there are more aggressive sales though.  

OTOH I have heard that the Lake Tahoe resorts have plenty of rooms available even after the most recent substantial snows.  I don't do winter so I can't testify personally.   :-)

Stef and I flew into TRK last sunday and have spent the week at our place in Squaw.  Restaurants are full and people are on the slopes. We were in Mammoth the 21st-23rd and it was busy there too.   With more snow expected tomorrow i don't foresee anyone rushing to leave.   I spoke with my neighbor yesterday, the GM of Squaw, he told me that season pass numbers are the same as they have been and day ticket sales are only slightly low.  He does think they will see a slump now that the holiday season is ending but I think sales will be more dependent on snow conditions than anything else.   Vail is further off the beaten path so I'm not too surprised that it is slow. Planing going back to the condo in Mammoth later this month, well see how many people are up there then.

I live in Beaver Creek 3 months a year. The slopes are still pretty busy, actually exceeding the allowance by the NPS 2 days this week, but big spending is definately down. Real estate construction is coming to a halt and it is a buyers market. Vail Resorts offered a ski pass this season called the Epic pass allowing unlimited skiing for about 500 dollars. That had a big impact on people on the slopes over the 97 dollars per day standard rate! I heard from a local snowmobile tour guide that sales are down about 30%, pretty standard with the rest of the country. It is a great time to be here if you have any spare change.

Let's all hope 2009 turns this economy around! Happy New Year to all.

Four Season in Kona was almost empty last month.  They usually rent for $900 a night (probably the reason!!!).  The hotel is now offering specials like -  buy 3 nights and get 1 free.  

I figured there was about 10-15 rooms occupied in this 300 unit plush complex..  Ouch!  I would short that stock.

I did however bump into one guest on the beach and said hello as he was reading a Cirrus weather minimums publications..   So out of 10-15 guest, 2 were confirmed Cirrus Owners.

Back to Los Angeles statistics, it's very evident that our slow down is way more than a dip in the road.  I read yesterday that Piper reduced work weeks similar to Cirrus.  Cessna is not making enough 400's or 350's to put a smile on their balance sheet.

Luxury cars are being sold at amazing prices.  I came close to buying a 4 month old Ferrari 430 Spyder at 60k off MSRP.  1 year ago they were all $50k over sticker..  Ouch...  imagine paying $300k a year ago and cant sell your Ferrari for more than $175k as owners with 2008's are negotiating at 200k.

Another big question is the upcoming proposed "Sales Tax Holiday".  I know it will apply to cars and clothes, perhaps it should include airplanes.  Imagine the look on congresses face with AOPA lobbying to include airplanes. With the last fiasco of CEO's from GM, Ford and Chrysler showing up in Jets, I doubt the sympathy trail for sales tax holidays would be extend to aviation, but its obvious the aviation manufactures are struggling big time..

Conclusion: Pass on the Ferrari's and keep your plane running smooth and your oil clean.. I think the % of us going to Jets or Turbo G3's are dropping fast..  Perhaps our G2's will go up a bit in value as less people are buying new $600k G3 or 400's in this economy..

Living 1 hour drive west of Steamboat Springs, CO, our local economy is impacted by the skiers and the construction boom that went into overdrive several years back.  A high percentage of those dollars come from outside of this area, as folk with extra income come to play, and the numbers of half-mil winter cottages that have been built over the past decade or so is astounding.

the locals i know that are involved in construction and related work are telling me they were able to finish many contracts late summer and fall, without Any new ones waiting on them for the spring.   I'm told there is much equipment and trucks on the market recently, as those who did stay with it thru the fall season, claimed they weren't making much due to high costs, fuel on top of a long list.

A few days before Christmas we picked up daughter #4 at KHDN, where she flew in commercial on a 747.   There were less than fifty on her plane, and departing yesterday, it looked to be less than 100, again on a 747.   Times past, those planes with directs from DFW, ATL, SLC, DEN, IAH  and other major hubs would be full and hard to find an extra seat on.

These people come from all over the U.S. And overseas to ski for a weekend or longer, but i've witnessed this before  When times get a bit tougher there is less "expendable income" for the frills, such as a $1000+ Ski Weekend with the family.   Like Bob found in Vail, condos are available.   It's not like the ski slopes are bare of people (seen that a few times) but the numbers are surely down.   Several weeks ago, Steamboat Ski Resort, who operates the ski hill, laid off quite a few of their year round employees, and they were told they could stay and work "seasonal" if they wished.

I don't know how far the numbers actually dropped, but they are down.   Is it a Recession, or is it a Depression?    Can't say for sure, but is surely is one or t'other.