Tale of a scud runner -- Me!

Getting home from the Las Vegas CPPP proved challenging for many participants, including me.  The weather turned cold and cloudy on Sunday morning and prevented any flight segments. (Thanks to Kelly Rudy for organizing two tours of the Las Vegas TRACON and McCarran tower!)

By 3pm at the end of the CPPP, the weather looked like VFR ceilings would enable me to fly down the Colorado River valley then hook a right along Interstate 10 and end up at Palm Springs to visit family, a flight without ever going into a cold, moist cloud.  Fortunately, I wasn’t attempting to get to San Diego, where the terrain would have forced me to climb into the freezing levels in IMC.

As the Chair of the CPPP, one of my last duties involves collecting flight training records from CPPP flight instructors, many of whom commented on my planned departure. Several made skeptical remarks, a couple volunteered weather updates, and one just shook his head.

And as the COPA safety zealot, I’m always acutely aware of the potential headline should I become involved in a pilot-induced accident!

Turns out that I took off, made it about 10 miles south of the dam, turned back and had dinner with several CPPP instructors, who promptly grilled me about my decision process.  After the discussion, they encouraged me to add it as an object lesson for other COPA members.  Here goes ...

The 5 P’s

Those who have attended CPPP on the west coast know that I often teach the Single Pilot Resource Management session.  This scenario-based training module emphasizes the 5 P’s for expanding your situational awareness and practices taking action to mitigate or eliminate risks.  Since that’s how I do my flight planning, let me share how I handled this scud running flight.  By the way, the 5 P’s are the Plan, the Pilot, the Plane, the Passengers and the Programming.

The Plan (Actually Plural, Plans)

While I don’t teach it this way, in reality my flight planning usually creates several possible alternatives depending on what I expect will happen during the flight.  No different this time.  And all of this was thought through on the ground before I departed the flight planning room.

Plan A – Fly VFR under the bases

In the Las Vegas area, there were definite ceilings that were VFR, and at each of the airports with TAFs along the way, there were also VFR ceilings.  The ceilings had been rising in the afternoon (good) with occasional rain showers (bad) but nothing terribly stormy.  Visibilities during the day had been quite good except for the occasional showers.  (Insert requisite caution about TAF forecasts being valid for only a few miles around an airport and not for the terrain between airports.)

Plan A was to fly VFR under the bases of the ceilings along the low terrain of the Colorado River valley south from the Las Vegas area towards the Needles VOR and then Parker VOR and then Blythe VOR, but actually following the river.  When I got to the Blythe area, I’d find the Interstate and head west towards Palm Springs.  Guess I was combining I-Follow-Rivers with the I-Follow-Roads technique!

Furthermore, I would only depart if I had two hours flying time to land about an hour before sunset in the Palm Springs area.  I really wanted to see where I was going while under the clouds.

Plan B – No bases, then loiter to see if the weather changes

This weather system appeared to be slowly moving eastward with rain shafts in spots.  One of the CPPP instructors even pointed out the rain over the Lake Mead area as I was close to departure.  But the radar and the observable weather showed rather spotty areas of precipitation that was shifting around.

Plan B was to loiter in a clear area and see what changed.  If it got better soon enough, then back to Plan A, and if not, then onto Plan C.

Plan C – No VFR conditions to continue, then return VFR to Las Vegas

A critical component of my decision making was knowing that COPA had arranged with the hotel to extend the weekend rate to any Cirrus pilot who had to return due to weather.  Several people simply never checked out and extended their stays, but we knew that some might try to get out and be forced to return.  We offered that out.  I knew it and was willing to accept it.

Plan C was to turn around and fly back using the VFR arrival procedure into North Las Vegas (the Cortez arrival from Lake Mead).  This made the flight more of an attempt to get to Palm Springs rather than a trip to Palm Springs.  For me, that difference is really important.

Plan D – Worst case with no VFR conditions on the return

From talking with Kelly Rudy about Minimum Vectoring Altitudes in the Las Vegas area and watching the freezing levels in the valley, I knew that I’d have the opportunity to climb into the clouds, wait for a pop-up IFR clearance back to North Las Vegas at 4,000 or 6,000 feet, and be able to get back.  This was a return and not a departure, so I didn’t need high MEAs to avoid terrain, just modest altitudes to mix it up with LAS arrivals and get to KVGT.

What I didn’t know was how the afternoon temps were cooling off, so I planned to watch the temps as I departed and set my point of no return accordingly.

The Pilot

My flying experience is about 2,800 hours, all but 65 hours in Cirrus aircraft.  Most of my trips involve long cross-country legs.  I have flown in California for 8 winters, exclusively VFR or VFR-on-Top to see to avoid the cold clouds.

Almost exclusively!  This winter differs because of El Nino.  The warm ocean currents have created warm winter storms with higher freezing levels, so I’ve twice flown IFR at MEAs that are warm enough to avoid icing.

I acknowledged some fatigue after organizing the CPPP weekend.  And the Las Vegas event involved more improvisation than usual!

While I am not a certified instructor, I have taught all of the CPPP ground courses except the avionics modules.  That includes the weather courses, engine management and especially the Single Pilot Resource Management course.

And I’ve practiced the 5 P’s technique for 5 years in lots of real-life scenarios.

The Plane

N858CD is an antique SR22, serial number 127, produced in Dec 2001.  The engine has 2800 hours since new with a top overhaul at 2200 hours.  Engine operation is almost exclusively LOP, using the Big Mixture Pull with 12.5 gph at 9,500 or 15 gph at 5,500 common operating.

Coincidentally, my ARNAV ICDS 2000 MFD is INOP and due for shipment to Sagem for repairs, so I do not have that cool terrain profile view that I like so much, nor a big moving map, nor engine monitoring.  However, I have a Sandel HSI with moving map, and two WAAS capable Garmin 430s with terrain databases.  Navdata databases are current.  Plane is legit for IFR operation, as well as VFR operation.

Onboard weather with a Garmin 496 with XM subscription.

Plane was full of fuel and weight and balance showed a center CG thanks to the two boxes of Cirrus Pilot safety issue in the baggage compartment.  Plane equipped with portable oxygen with Oxyarm delivery.

The Passengers

 None.  No distractions, but no helpers, just me.

The Programming

Flight plan was KVGT - KIDDS - IRISH - EED - P20 - BLH - L64 - L77 - TRM - KUDD @ 3500 feet.  Note that I put several airports in the flight plan, both as alternate diversions and to keep my magenta line close to the Colorado River.  Altitude preselect was 3500 feet.

Sandel showed the GPS flight plan course line and bearing pointer to the next waypoint, and I used heading mode to meander. 

Garmin #1 showed the flight plan with the Colorado River in blue with the Arizona/Nevada state line in dashed white.  Map data blocks showed ground speed, time to next waypoint, desired track to next waypoint, and vertical speed rate.   Garmin #2 showed the terrain with yellow identifying the terrain less than 1,000 feet below me.

No ARNAV MFD. 

iPhone-equipped with Foreflight mobile with VFR and IFR charts for NV and CA, along with AOPA directory.

Also have paper charts for Las Vegas VFR and Low Enroute IFR, as well as paper procedures books for AZ, NV and CA.

What Actually Happened

The Single Pilot Resource Management course recommends reviewing the 5 P’s at several decision points: before leaving the flight planning room, before leaving the ground, every hour en route, before descending, before initiating an approach.  Here’s what happened in my flight.

Before Leaving the Flight Planning Room

Looking at the sky gave me some confidence that there was light to see, there was a definite VFR ceiling, and there were some areas of rain to avoid.  5-minute radar showed a band of moisture across my path and satellite view showed a break in the cloud cover opening up where I wanted to go.  I got some local guidance on VFR departures.  Proceed with Plan A.

Before Leaving the Ground

North Las Vegas ground gave me a VFR departure that would take me north heading 340 to avoid LAS Class Bravo airspace and set up my flight following request.  I set the heading in my Sandel and was ready to go.

First Leg to Hoover Dam

Took off from runway 07 and climbed in a left turn to 340 and contacted Nellis AFB.  Got radar identification and was given instructions that when reaching 4,000 feet turn heading 090.  Ceiling was indeed above me at about 5,000 MSL.  And I could see the lake without concern for rain showers.  Continue with Plan A.

Nellis handed me off to Las Vegas Approach who cleared me to 5,500.  Replied “unable due to clouds, request 3,500”, which was approved.  Began my own navigation over the lake towards the dam.  Got dropped because I was below radar coverage, squawk VFR, which I had expected.

Had a bit of difficulty figuring out the location of the dam since the channel is hidden from the lake behind some hills.  Reviewed my position on the Garmin map with the VFR Terminal Chart.  Saw the river below the dam come into view.  Saw the new suspension bridge under construction.  Saw the dam.  Confirmed VFR at 3,500 MSL would keep me under the ceilings and above the terrain.  Continue with Plan A.

Beyond Hoover Dam

Meandering along the river was actually fun.  Had a great sightseeing view of the river and the surrounding terrain.  The Garmin terrain display clearly showed the river valley between areas of yellow, which was terrain less than 1,000 feet below me.  Easy to keep myself clear of terrain.  Slowed down a bit to 120 knots, partly to ease my maneuvering and partly to enjoy the view more.

Did a wind check to determine the windward side of the canyon.  Had learned from the Cory Lidle accident how to use the wind to shorten a U-turn.  But needed to choose the correct side of the canyon.  Winds were modest 7 knots from the east, directly across my path.  Chose to fly along the western edge of the canyon and that gave me a wonderful view of the river from my window.

WINGS intersection

At this point, I encountered clouds down into the valley and blocking my progress.  The chart showed WINGS intersection and a slight ridge that was topped with clouds.

Switch to Plan B. 

Clouds seemed in motion across the canyon and I was flying in a clear bowl about 1,000 feet above terrain with cloud bases well above me.  Decided to loiter a bit and did some figure-8 maneuvers at 100 to 90 knots with flaps 50%.  Spent about 15 minutes while watching the clouds change.

Unfortunately, this was the front.  The clouds were changing and moving across the canyon as I expected, but new clouds emerged and filled the canyon.  Later I learned that the front stalled southwest of Las Vegas, exactly where I was loitering, and simply rotated all night long with clouds, rain in a never ending cycle.  I was never going to get past it.

Still had daylight, still had definite ceilings, so switch to Plan C.  Flew a U-turn towards the wind and returned to the Hoover Dam and Lake Mead.

Cortez Arrival

As I got to Lake Mead, turned towards Las Vegas and called up approach and requested the Cortez Arrival procedure back to North Las Vegas airport.  I was already at 3500 MSL so simply flew the arrival.  Weather over Las Vegas had higher ceilings and so enjoyed the flight over the city and wondered who would be available for dinner!

Debrief at Dinner

One of my pleasures of chairing the CPPP events comes from the interactions of so many talented instructors.  Made a few calls and arranged dinner with some after checking back into the CPPP hotel.  Expected a grilling, and not just my seafood!

First topic of discussion, “So Rick, describe your decision process for this flight?”  Couple of comments about the headlines if the COPA safety guru was involved in a scud-running accident.  Genuine surprise at my worst-case plan to pop up and return IFR because the MVA enabled it from that area.  And encouragement to post this as an object lesson.

Lessons Learned

Personal minimums are personal.  They reflect the personal experience levels, risk assessments, risk tolerance, knowledge and skills of the pilot setting the minimums.  Each pilot has to determine what minimums are acceptable to them, with their experience, with their proficiency, with their

This is definitely a do-as-I-say scenario.  Just because some other pilot did something does not fully explain why they accepted that risk.  Hopefully, by explaining my thought process, you can appreciate that a lot of thinking went into hundreds of decisions along the way.

And if you do not fully appreciate how you would handle similar risks, then please do not expose yourself to them.

Cheers

Rick